October 22, 2026

EQUIPMENT BUSINESS — OCTOBER 20 RESULTS

Ponsse orders rise while sales, profit and cash flow weaken

Ponsse’s third-quarter order intake increased to €170.4 million from €143.4 million a year earlier, but net sales fell to €159.8 million from €172.7 million. The forest-machine manufacturer published its January–September interim report on October 20.

Quarterly operating profit declined to €5.9 million from €9.6 million. It included €3.5 million in customs-duty refunds recognized by the U.S. operation. Third-quarter cash flow from operating activities was negative €20.4 million, compared with negative €0.2 million a year earlier.

CEO Juho Nummela said new-machine and maintenance-service sales declined, while used-machine sales remained around the comparison-period level. Used-machine sales were insufficient to reduce inventories, and new-machine inventories also increased as invoicing fell below expectations.

The company said it would adjust factory capacity for the remainder of 2026 to market conditions. Its order book stood at €170.5 million at September’s end and extended partly into 2027. Full-year operating-profit guidance remained unchanged, at approximately the 2025 level of €41.6 million. These are company results and guidance, rather than an estimate of the entire equipment market.

Ponsse’s original interim report → Full company release and management discussion on Nasdaq →

CANADA / U.S. LUMBER — OCTOBER 21 PUBLICATION

Freight availability complicates a slower lumber market

Madison’s Lumber Reporter’s October 21 market commentary describes transportation constraints during the week ending October 9. Seasonal cargo competed for trucks and railcars, while lumber buyers remained cautious about carrying inventory as construction demand slowed.

The report describes higher delivery costs and unreliable equipment availability, including Eastern spruce-pine-fir loads losing transportation capacity to seasonal goods. It separates the price of lumber from the difficulty of getting previously ordered material delivered. The commentary is newly published, but its reporting period is October 9; it is not a survey of conditions on October 21 or 22.

Madison’s original transportation-market report →

WEST — CALIFORNIA / PROPOSALS DUE NOVEMBER 20

Cathedral contract combines treatment work with merchantable wood

The Great Basin Institute seeks proposals for the Cathedral cut-to-length project on 166.9 acres in seven Lake Tahoe Basin units. Its October 20 announcement lists thinning, biomass treatment, landing-slash removal and road maintenance and erosion control.

The selected contractor must purchase and remove designated merchantable timber. Its value offsets payments for accepted service work through stewardship credits; advance cash deposits for the timber are not required. The RFP lists an estimated 2,334 green tons of landing slash, expressly without a guaranteed quantity. The contract runs through October 15, 2028.

Proposals are due November 20 at 5 p.m. Pacific Standard Time; questions are due November 4 at 5 p.m. A bid tour is listed for October 29 at 9 a.m., starting at the Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit office, 35 College Drive, South Lake Tahoe. The RFP labels the tour time “PST,” although daylight time remains in effect that date. John Pelak is the listed project contact.

Original project announcement and map → Full Cathedral RFP, commercial terms and calendar →

MIDWEST — MICHIGAN / NOVEMBER 10 BID OPENING

Gladwin timber offerings appear in DNR’s available-sales table

Michigan DNR’s current available-sales listing includes Triple F, sale 73-006-24, with bids opening November 10 at 11 a.m. at the Gladwin office. The advertised price is US$161,529.20 and listed volume is 6,147 cords, with aspen and hardwood as the major market groups.

The same opening includes Scotty’s Midland Delight, sale 73-011-24, at an advertised US$122,196.95 for 5,630 cords. These are advertised offerings, not awarded prices or guaranteed recoveries. DNR says users must register in person at a DNR office before using online bidding. The available-sales table links each sale’s details and bidding route.

Official available timber-sales listing → DNR online-bidding registration information →

THURSDAY DEEP DIVE — EASTERN HARDWOOD MILL ECONOMICS

Hardwood simulations separate recovery, prices and operating costs

A 2025 study by Urs Buehlmann and Edward Thomas used sawmill simulation to examine how changes in log costs, operating expenses and lumber prices affect hardwood mill profits. It modeled eastern U.S. mills producing 4 million, 8 million and 12 million board feet of red oak lumber annually.

The researchers created a 1,000-log sample, divided equally between Factory 1 and Factory 2 grades, and simulated conversion with the Log Recovery Analysis Tool, or LORCAT. Actual mill accounts were unavailable. They therefore calculated operating expenses from an assumed break-even starting point using 2024 market information. The results describe hypothetical mills, not a survey of businesses.

For the modeled 12-million-board-foot mill, a 0.1% operating-cost increase reduced annual profit by US$4,510; the same proportional increase in log costs reduced it by US$4,411. The study also examined combinations of expense and selling-price changes. It did not incorporate economies of scale, or vary transport costs and residue prices as additional sensitivity factors. Those omissions and the assumed starting point limit interpretation of its dollar estimates.

The Forest Service’s 2025 user guide explains how the spreadsheet model links logs to products and financial results. Inputs include species, log grade and dimensions, along with kerf, board thickness, sawing variation and other processing specifications. Outputs include lumber and cant volume, projected National Hardwood Lumber Association grade recovery, and estimated costs and profits. Expert mode adds estimates of chip, bark and sawdust quantities and revenues.

Separate validation research published in 2024 compared simulation with actual sawmill results for 42 hardwood logs. It found no statistically significant difference in total sawn volume. Board counts did differ significantly, which the researchers attributed to differences in targeting the opening-face board size. Agreement on volume therefore did not establish agreement on every output measure.

The current Forest Service tool page, updated July 15, 2026, offers LORCAT version 4.2 for download. It describes a spreadsheet application for Excel or LibreOffice that can examine a single log or batches of hundreds. The linked guide is for version 4.00. These are existing research and software resources, presented here as this week’s Deep Dive.

Buehlmann and Thomas, 2025: profit sensitivity study → Forest Service 2025 user guide → Thomas, Buehlmann and Bennett, 2024: 42-log validation → Current Forest Service LORCAT download and version →